EC-CEPR-JIE conference
"Global Shocks, Macroeconomic Spillovers and Geopolitical Risks: Policy Challenges"

7-8 April 2025, European Commission, Brussels
Berlaymont building, Rue de la Loi 200 (directions)

A conference organized by the European Commission, the Journal of International Economics, and CEPR.

Supporting material:

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Day 1: Monday 7 April 2025

Room: Walter Hallstein (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video

08:30 - 09:00   Welcome Coffee & Registration

09:00 - 09:10 Opening Remarks: Géraldine Mahieu (Director Investment, growth and structural reforms, European Commission, DG ECFIN)

09:10 – 11:10 Session I: "Globalization and Global Shocks", Chair: Björn Döhring (DG ECFIN)

"Global Supply Chain Disruptions and their Macroeconomic Effects" by Diego Känzig (Northwestern University and CEPR) and Ramya Raghavan (Northwestern University) [ paper pdf | slides ]

Discussant: Rafael Wouters (National Bank of Belgium and CEPR) [ slides ]

"Unstable Prosperity: How Globalization Made the World Economy More Volatile" by Enrique Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania) and Vincenzo Quadrini (University of Southern California and CEPR) [ paper pdf | slides ]

Discussant: Cédric Tille (Graduate Institute Geneva and CEPR) [slides]

"Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Arrangements, and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy: The Trilemma Strikes Back" by Jongrim Ha (Worldbank), Haiqin Liu (Fudan University) and John Rogers (Fudan University) [ paper pdf | slides ]

Discussant: Riccardo Degasperi (Banca d’Italia) [slides]

11:10 – 11:30   Coffee Break

11:30 – 12:15 Keynote 1: Hélène Rey (London Business School and CEPR) [slides]

12:15 - 13:15   Lunch Break

13:15 – 14:00 Keynote 2: Silvana Tenreyro (London School of Economics and CEPR) "Optimal monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in commodity-exposed countries" with Thomas Drechsel (University of Maryland and CEPR), Michael McLeay (Bank of England) and Enrico Turri (London School of Economics) [ paper pdf | slides ]

14:00 – 14:15   Coffee Break

14:15 - 15:35 Session II (Parallel):

↳ Parallel session IIa: A: "Dominant Currency", Chair: Matteo Salto (DG ECFIN)
Room: Walter Hallstein (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video

"Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-US Global Banks" by Philippe Bacchetta (Université de Lausanne and CEPR), Scott Davis (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) and Eric van Wincoop (University of Virginia) [ paper pdf | slides]
Discussant: Beata Javorcik (EBRD and CEPR) [slides]

"Demand for Safe Assets and Spillovers from the Global Dollar Cycle" by Cían Allen (IMF), Rudolfs Bems (IMF and CEPR), Lukas Boer (IMF) and Racha Moussa (IMF) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Georgios Georgiadis (ECB) [slides]

↳ Parallel session IIb: "Sanctions and Commodities", Chair: Philipp Pfeiffer (DG ECFIN)
Room: 01/312 (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video

"Unpacking Commodity Price Fluctuations: Reading the News to Understand Inflation" by Dimitris Malliaropulos (Bank of Greece), Evgenia Passari (Université Paris Dauphine and CEPR) and Filippos Petroulakis (Bank of Greece) [paper pdf | slides]
Discussant: Marta Banbura (ECB) [slides]

"Financial Sanctions Interact(ed) with Trade Sanctions" by Christian Bayer (University of Bonn and CEPR), Alexandros Gilch (University of Bonn) and Farzad Saidi (University of Bonn and CEPR) [paper pdf | slides]
Discussant: Konstantin Egorov (University of Antwerp) [slides]

15:45 – 16:00   Coffee Break

16:00 - 18:00 Session III: "Fragmentation", Chair: Alessandra Tucci (DG TRADE)

"Trading Around Geopolitics" by Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute and CEPR), Banu Demir (University of Oxford and CEPR) and Beata Javorcik (EBRD and CEPR) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Dzhamilya Nigmatulina (University of Lausanne) [slides]

"The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety" by Thierry Mayer (Sciences Po Paris and CEPR), Isabelle Méjean (Sciences Po Paris and CEPR) and Mathias Thoenig (University of Lausanne and CEPR) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Carolina Villegas-Sanchez (ESADE, ECB and CEPR) [slides]

"Playing with Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling" by Barthélémy Bonadio (NYU Abu Dhabi), Zhen Huo (Yale University), Elliot Kang (University of Michigan), Andrei Levchenko (University of Michigan and CEPR), Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (University of Texas at Austin), Hiroshi Toma (University of Michigan) and Petia Topalova (IMF and CEPR) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Thierry Mayer (Sciences Po Paris and CEPR) [slides]

19:00   Conference Dinner (by invitation)

Day 2: Tuesday 8 April 2025

Room: Jean Rey (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video

08:45 - 09:00   Arrival and Coffee

09:00 - 11:00 Session IV: "Currencies and Geopolitics", Chair: Stefan Zeugner (DG ECFIN)

"Labor Mobility and the Level of Unemployment in a Currency Union" by Erin Gibson (University of Michigan), Chris House (University of Michigan), Christian Proebsting (University of Leuven) and Linda Tesar (University of Michigan and CEPR) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Tommaso Monacelli (Bocconi University and CEPR) [slides]

"Geopolitical Risk and Central Bank Reserve Currency Holdings" by Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin), Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University) and Hiro Ito (Portland State University) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Leonor Coutinho (DG ECFIN, European Commission) [slides]

"China as an International Lender of Last Resort" by Lukas Franz (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Sebastian Horn (World Bank, Kiel Institute for the World Economy and CEPR), Bradley Parks (AidData), Carmen Reinhart (Harvard University and CEPR) and Christoph Trebesch (Kiel University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy and CEPR) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Livio Stracca (ECB) [slides]

11:15 - 11:30   Coffee Break

11:30 – 12:15 Keynote 3: Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Sciences Po Paris and CEPR): "Economic Insecurity: Import Dependencies and their Weaponization in History" with Martin Bernstein (Harvard University), Josefin Meyer (DIW Berlin), Kevin O’Rourke (University of Oxford and CEPR). [slides]

12:15 - 13:05   Lunch Break

13:05 - 14:25 Session V (Parallel):

↳ Parallel session Va: "Imbalances and Spillovers", Chair: Christine Frayne (DG ECFIN)
Room: 01/312 (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video

"Granular Expectation Shocks and International Financial Contagion" by Kenza Benhima (Université de Lausanne and CEPR), Elio Bolliger (Swiss Federal Department of Finance) and Margaret Davenport (King’s College London) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (Bank of England and CEPR) [slides]

"A well-crafted BEER: Identifying the fundamental drivers of real exchange rates" by Mathilde Dufouleur (Université Paris-Saclay), Mirjam Salish (European Commission and Oesterreichische Nationalbank), Milan Vyskrabka (European Commission) and Stefan Zeugner (European Commission) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Martin Schmitz (ECB) [slides]

↳ Parallel session Vb: "Global Growth and Financial Markets", Chair: Lukas Vogel (DG ECFIN)
Room: Jean Rey (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video

"Different No More? Country Spreads in Advanced and Emerging Economies" by Benjamin Born (Frankfurt School of Management and Finance and CEPR), Johannes Pfeifer (University of the Bundeswehr Munich), Gernot Müller (University of Tübingen and CEPR), and Susanne Wellmann (Unternehmer BW) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Roberto Pancrazi (University of Warwick) [slides]

"Diverging Growth Trends, Current Accounts and Real Exchange Rates" by Adrian Ifrim (Joint Research Centre, European Commission) with Robert Kollmann (Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Philipp Pfeiffer (DG ECFIN, European Commission), Marco Ratto (Joint Research Centre, European Commission), and Werner Roeger (DIW Berlin and University of Leuven) [ paper pdf | slides ]
Discussant: Guenter Coenen (ECB) [slides]

14:25 - 14:45   Coffee Break

14:45 - 15:45 Policy Panel: "Navigating Global Shocks and Geopolitical Disruptions: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Challenges" with Linda Goldberg (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and CEPR), Linda Tesar (University of Michigan and CEPR), Moritz Schularick (President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Sciences Po Paris and CEPR) and Maarten Verwey (Director-General, DG ECFIN).
Moderator: Gernot Müller

Time allocation:
Keynotes: 45 minutes
Other papers: 40 minutes (author 20 min; discussant 10 min; general discussion 10 min)

Contacts:
email: ECFIN-JIE-GLOBAL-MACRO-2025@ec.europa.eu
tel: +32 (0) 2 29 51367

Scientific Committee:
Kenza Benhima (Université de Lausanne and CEPR)
Robert Kollmann (Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR)
Gernot Müller (University of Tübingen and CEPR)
Philipp Pfeiffer (European Commission)
Mirjam Salish (European Commission and Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Stefan Zeugner (European Commission)

08:30 - 09:00	Welcome Coffee & Registration
09:00 - 09:10	Opening Remarks: Géraldine Mahieu (Director Investment, growth and structural reforms, European Commission, DG ECFIN)
09:10 – 11:10	Session I: "Globalization and Global Shocks", Chair: Björn Döhring (DG ECFIN) "Global Supply Chain Disruptions and their Macroeconomic Effects" by Diego Känzig (Northwestern University and CEPR) and Ramya Raghavan (Northwestern University) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Rafael Wouters (National Bank of Belgium and CEPR) [ slides ] "Unstable Prosperity: How Globalization Made the World Economy More Volatile" by Enrique Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania) and Vincenzo Quadrini (University of Southern California and CEPR) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Cédric Tille (Graduate Institute Geneva and CEPR) [slides] "Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Arrangements, and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy: The Trilemma Strikes Back" by Jongrim Ha (Worldbank), Haiqin Liu (Fudan University) and John Rogers (Fudan University) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Riccardo Degasperi (Banca d’Italia) [slides]
11:10 – 11:30	Coffee Break
11:30 – 12:15	Keynote 1: Hélène Rey (London Business School and CEPR) [slides]
12:15 - 13:15	Lunch Break
13:15 – 14:00	Keynote 2: Silvana Tenreyro (London School of Economics and CEPR) "Optimal monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in commodity-exposed countries" with Thomas Drechsel (University of Maryland and CEPR), Michael McLeay (Bank of England) and Enrico Turri (London School of Economics) [ paper pdf \| slides ]
14:00 – 14:15	Coffee Break
14:15 - 15:35	Session II (Parallel):
↳	Parallel session IIa: A: "Dominant Currency", Chair: Matteo Salto (DG ECFIN) Room: Walter Hallstein (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video "Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-US Global Banks" by Philippe Bacchetta (Université de Lausanne and CEPR), Scott Davis (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) and Eric van Wincoop (University of Virginia) [ paper pdf \| slides] Discussant: Beata Javorcik (EBRD and CEPR) [slides] "Demand for Safe Assets and Spillovers from the Global Dollar Cycle" by Cían Allen (IMF), Rudolfs Bems (IMF and CEPR), Lukas Boer (IMF) and Racha Moussa (IMF) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Georgios Georgiadis (ECB) [slides]
↳	Parallel session IIb: "Sanctions and Commodities", Chair: Philipp Pfeiffer (DG ECFIN) Room: 01/312 (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video "Unpacking Commodity Price Fluctuations: Reading the News to Understand Inflation" by Dimitris Malliaropulos (Bank of Greece), Evgenia Passari (Université Paris Dauphine and CEPR) and Filippos Petroulakis (Bank of Greece) [paper pdf \| slides] Discussant: Marta Banbura (ECB) [slides] "Financial Sanctions Interact(ed) with Trade Sanctions" by Christian Bayer (University of Bonn and CEPR), Alexandros Gilch (University of Bonn) and Farzad Saidi (University of Bonn and CEPR) [paper pdf \| slides] Discussant: Konstantin Egorov (University of Antwerp) [slides]
15:45 – 16:00	Coffee Break
16:00 - 18:00	Session III: "Fragmentation", Chair: Alessandra Tucci (DG TRADE) "Trading Around Geopolitics" by Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute and CEPR), Banu Demir (University of Oxford and CEPR) and Beata Javorcik (EBRD and CEPR) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Dzhamilya Nigmatulina (University of Lausanne) [slides] "The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety" by Thierry Mayer (Sciences Po Paris and CEPR), Isabelle Méjean (Sciences Po Paris and CEPR) and Mathias Thoenig (University of Lausanne and CEPR) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Carolina Villegas-Sanchez (ESADE, ECB and CEPR) [slides] "Playing with Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling" by Barthélémy Bonadio (NYU Abu Dhabi), Zhen Huo (Yale University), Elliot Kang (University of Michigan), Andrei Levchenko (University of Michigan and CEPR), Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (University of Texas at Austin), Hiroshi Toma (University of Michigan) and Petia Topalova (IMF and CEPR) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Thierry Mayer (Sciences Po Paris and CEPR) [slides]
19:00	Conference Dinner (by invitation)

08:45 - 09:00	Arrival and Coffee
09:00 - 11:00	Session IV: "Currencies and Geopolitics", Chair: Stefan Zeugner (DG ECFIN) "Labor Mobility and the Level of Unemployment in a Currency Union" by Erin Gibson (University of Michigan), Chris House (University of Michigan), Christian Proebsting (University of Leuven) and Linda Tesar (University of Michigan and CEPR) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Tommaso Monacelli (Bocconi University and CEPR) [slides] "Geopolitical Risk and Central Bank Reserve Currency Holdings" by Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin), Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University) and Hiro Ito (Portland State University) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Leonor Coutinho (DG ECFIN, European Commission) [slides] "China as an International Lender of Last Resort" by Lukas Franz (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Sebastian Horn (World Bank, Kiel Institute for the World Economy and CEPR), Bradley Parks (AidData), Carmen Reinhart (Harvard University and CEPR) and Christoph Trebesch (Kiel University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy and CEPR) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Livio Stracca (ECB) [slides]
11:15 - 11:30	Coffee Break
11:30 – 12:15	Keynote 3: Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Sciences Po Paris and CEPR): "Economic Insecurity: Import Dependencies and their Weaponization in History" with Martin Bernstein (Harvard University), Josefin Meyer (DIW Berlin), Kevin O’Rourke (University of Oxford and CEPR). [slides]
12:15 - 13:05	Lunch Break
13:05 - 14:25	Session V (Parallel):
↳	Parallel session Va: "Imbalances and Spillovers", Chair: Christine Frayne (DG ECFIN) Room: 01/312 (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video "Granular Expectation Shocks and International Financial Contagion" by Kenza Benhima (Université de Lausanne and CEPR), Elio Bolliger (Swiss Federal Department of Finance) and Margaret Davenport (King’s College London) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (Bank of England and CEPR) [slides] "A well-crafted BEER: Identifying the fundamental drivers of real exchange rates" by Mathilde Dufouleur (Université Paris-Saclay), Mirjam Salish (European Commission and Oesterreichische Nationalbank), Milan Vyskrabka (European Commission) and Stefan Zeugner (European Commission) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Martin Schmitz (ECB) [slides]
↳	Parallel session Vb: "Global Growth and Financial Markets", Chair: Lukas Vogel (DG ECFIN) Room: Jean Rey (Berlaymont 1st floor); Webstream: Video "Different No More? Country Spreads in Advanced and Emerging Economies" by Benjamin Born (Frankfurt School of Management and Finance and CEPR), Johannes Pfeifer (University of the Bundeswehr Munich), Gernot Müller (University of Tübingen and CEPR), and Susanne Wellmann (Unternehmer BW) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Roberto Pancrazi (University of Warwick) [slides] "Diverging Growth Trends, Current Accounts and Real Exchange Rates" by Adrian Ifrim (Joint Research Centre, European Commission) with Robert Kollmann (Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Philipp Pfeiffer (DG ECFIN, European Commission), Marco Ratto (Joint Research Centre, European Commission), and Werner Roeger (DIW Berlin and University of Leuven) [ paper pdf \| slides ] Discussant: Guenter Coenen (ECB) [slides]
14:25 - 14:45	Coffee Break
14:45 - 15:45	Policy Panel: "Navigating Global Shocks and Geopolitical Disruptions: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Challenges" with Linda Goldberg (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and CEPR), Linda Tesar (University of Michigan and CEPR), Moritz Schularick (President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Sciences Po Paris and CEPR) and Maarten Verwey (Director-General, DG ECFIN). Moderator: Gernot Müller