Germany

Germany conducts two pig surveys per year, the first in May and the second in November. These are integrated livestock censuses in that other types of animal (together with land use and farm structure) are surveyed at the same time.

The reduction in the number of surveys from three to two is justified as follows: the annual seasonal variations in the number of pigs have attenuated over time, as has their amplitude. The pig population is becoming increasingly concentrated on fewer holdings in response to structural changes in farming. Consequently, the number of pigs actually included in the sample is increasing, even though the number of holdings in the sample remains the same.

In May of odd-numbered years, these pig censuses are carried out as a full survey, otherwise they are stratified sample surveys. Since May 1999, a new sampling procedure has been used for the integrated survey of livestock, land use and structure. The last full survey was carried out in Germany in May 1999. The percentage of the pig population included in the sample is much higher than the percentage of holdings surveyed, as the inclusion rate for holdings with very large livestock populations is generally 100%. For the May sample survey, up to 100 000 holdings are questioned, the corresponding figure for the November survey being 80 000 maximum. In November 1999, the total number of holdings with pigs was around 139 000.

The sample surveys are stratified samples. Holdings with very large livestock populations are generally recorded in strata with sampling rates of 100%.

Germany carries out statistical surveys of pigs (integrated surveys) across the entire country (not in selected regions only).

In Germany, the surveys are a combination of face-to-face interviews with farmers, a written questionnaire and the use of administrative data plus a survey (pilot project in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg). The average response rate is nearly 100%. If a farmer fails to reply, repeated reminders are first sent out with an indication of the response obligation and of the coercive penalties and administrative fines that will be imposed in the event of failure to reply. Should this prove fruitless, the grossing-up factor applied at the next stage is increased accordingly. The survey is carried out by the Land statistical offices and the municipal authorities.

In the medium-term, Germany plans to replace part of the statistical surveys on the pig population with administrative data. Use may also be made of the Integrated Administrative and Control System (IACS). In Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, this procedure was introduced in May 1999 as part of a pilot project.

Surveys on the number of cattle

Germany carries out two cattle surveys per year, the first in May and the second in November. These are integrated livestock censuses in that other types of animal (together with land use and farm structure) are surveyed at the same time.

In May of odd-numbered years, these cattle censuses are carried out as a full survey, otherwise they are stratified sample surveys. Since May 1999, a new sampling procedure has been used for the integrated survey of livestock, land use and structure. The last full survey was carried out in Germany in May 1999. The percentage of the pig population included in the sample is much higher than the percentage of holdings surveyed, as the inclusion rate for holdings with very large livestock populations is generally 100%. For the May sample survey, up to 100 000 holdings are questioned, the corresponding figure for the November survey being 80 000 maximum. In November 1999, the total number of holdings with cattle was around 277 000.

The sample surveys are stratified. Holdings with very large livestock populations are generally recorded in strata with sampling rates of 100%.

Germany carries out statistical surveys of cattle (integrated surveys) across the entire country (not in selected regions only).

In the medium-term, Germany plans to replace part of the statistical surveys on the cattle population with administrative data. Use may also be made of the Integrated Administrative and Control System (IACS). In Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg this procedure was introduced in May 1999 as part of a pilot project.

Surveys on the number of sheep and goats

Germany carries out an annual survey of the sheep population in May. The goat population is estimated every five years. The sheep survey is an integrated cattle census in that other types of animal (together with land use and farm structure) are surveyed at the same time.

In May of odd-numbered years these sheep censuses are carried out as a full census, otherwise they are stratified sample surveys. Since May 1999, a new sample procedure has been applied as part of the integrated survey of livestock, land use and structure. The last full survey was carried out in Germany in May 1999. The percentage of the sheep population included in the sample is much higher than that of the holdings surveyed, as the inclusion rate for holdings with very large cattle populations is generally 100%. For the May sample survey, up to 100 000 holdings are questioned. The total number of holdings with sheep was around 34 000 in May 1999.

The sample surveys are stratified. Holdings with very large livestock populations are generally recorded in strata with sampling rates of 100%.

Germany carries out the statistical surveys of sheep (integrated surveys) across the country as a whole (not in selected regions only).

The estimate of the sheep population not covered by the survey is done by grossing-up.

In the medium-term, Germany plans to replace part of the statistical surveys on the sheep population with administrative data. Use may also be made of the Integrated Administrative and Control System (IACS). In Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, this procedure was introduced in May 1999 as part of a pilot project.

Statistics on slaughterings

Germany compiles monthly statistics on the number and slaughter weight of animals slaughtered in abattoirs for human consumption. These are for pigs (total), calves, heifers, cows, bulls, steers, sheep (total) and goats (total).


	Number	Slaughter Weight
Pigs, total	X	X
Calves	X	X
Heifers	X	X
Cows	X	X
Bulls	X	X
Stears	X	X
Sheep, total	X	X
Lambs	-	-
Goats, total	X	X

Statistics on slaughterings show the total number of animals slaughtered domestically. These are secondary statistics, being derived from the number of animals officially inspected by veterinarians and meat inspectors in accordance with the Meat Hygiene Act. Data are broken down by type of animal (cattle, pigs, sheep, goats and horses) and, in the case of cattle, are further subdivided into calves, steers, bulls, cows and female cattle. A distinction is also made between commercial and domestic slaughterings, and the origin of the slaughtered animals (domestic, foreign) is given.

As part of the statistics on slaughterings, monthly surveys are conducted on the slaughter weight of cattle, calves, pigs and sheep. For commercial slaughterings, these data are also taken from abattoir reports of quantities delivered and prices paid. Pursuant to the provisions of the Administrative Regulation on price reporting for slaughter cattle and carcasses outside markets subject to obligatory notification (Fourth ViehFIGDV), owners of abattoirs are under a response obligation if cattle, calves, pigs or sheep are delivered to them live or slaughtered and if they sell or process the meat of these animals for own or third-party account. The response obligation only exempts abattoirs which slaughter an average of fewer than 75 pigs, 30 head of cattle or 50 sheep per week. However, under the terms of Article 2(2) of the Fourth ViehFIGDV, abattoirs may also be exempt from the response obligation if their returns in terms of turnover volume are not significant for pricing. Around two-thirds of all commercial slaughterings in Germany take place in abattoirs subject to response obligation.

The slaughter weights of horses and goats are long-term averages. They are determined by the Statistisches Bundesamt [Federal Statistical Office] in agreement with the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Forestry. For home slaughterings (excluding pigs), the average values are estimated on the basis of the figures arrived at for commercial slaughterings. For pigs slaughtered at home, which are traditionally fattened more than commercially slaughtered pigs, an average slaughter weight laid down by the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Forestry is applied.

Data on external trade in live animals

In Germany, external trade statistics are designed as central statistics, with the Statistisches Bundesamt having sole responsibility for implementing and organising them.

Since the completion of the internal market on 1 January 1993 and the concomitant elimination of customs checks on goods at the internal borders of the Member States of the European Union, a distinction has been made in external trade statistics between extra- and intra-Community trade, i.e. data on cross-border movements of goods are recorded conventionally (via the customs authorities) or by direct notification on the part of enterprises.

Extra-Community trade statistics (the legal basis for which is Council Regulation (EEC) No 1172/95 on the statistics relating to the trading of goods by the Community and its Member States with non-member countries, plus the implementing regulation and amendments) record Germany's cross-border trade with non-member countries.

Extra-Community trade data are traditionally collected by the customs authorities during completion of the import or export formalities required by legislation. The document to be used here is the Single Administrative Document (SAD), which is used to simultaneously record completion of formalities for customs, taxation, external trade and external statistics. It consists of several copies, numbers two and seven of which (export and import declarations respectively) are used for statistical purposes.

Statistical declarations thus form an integral part of customs forms. They are checked by customs bodies for completeness and obvious errors before being forwarded to the StBA. This system guarantees virtually complete coverage of these goods transactions.

All movements of goods, whether imports and exports, require the completion of customs formalities. In general, therefore, the importer/exporter supplies the data as the declarant. He can either make the declaration himself or have it done by an authorised representative (such as a forwarding agent).

Intra-Community statistics (for details of legal basis, c.f. Council Regulation (EEC) No 3330/91 on the statistics relating to the trading of goods between Member States, plus implementing regulation and amendments) record cross-border trade between Germany and the other Member States of the EU.

For the purposes of customs legislation, trade within the EU, i.e. within the Community customs area, is now monitored by the customs authorities in a few cases only (e.g. trade in non-Community goods), so a new/different reporting system had to be set up in the form of direct declarations by the enterprises involved. The scheme in question is known as the permanent statistical reporting system, or Intrastat for short. One of the features of the Intrastat system is its close links with the turnover tax system, which makes indirect controls possible as a result of the turnover tax returns to be submitted each month by enterprises to the financial authorities.

Under the Intrastat system (form N), cross-border transactions in goods may be declared only in the following cases only:

The merchandise in question must be Community merchandise, i.e. goods that were obtained or produced in the EU, or that originated in a non-member country and were brought into free circulation in the EU in accordance with customs legislation, and

the goods flow was between regions of EU Member States that also belong EU territory subject to turnover tax.

All other cross-border transactions of goods are recorded under the statutory customs procedures.

There is a reporting obligation on enterprises engaged in intra-Community trade that are subject to turnover tax. The burden on enterprises is eased by the assimilation threshold, beneath which a statistical declaration need not be made.

Declaration exemptions apply, inter alia, to movements of goods of minor economic significance (such as transfers of personal property), goods that are particularly difficult to record (e.g. diplomatic goods) and the temporary import and export of goods (e.g. for trade fairs and exhibitions).

In addition to these exceptions, which are independent of the notification system used, there are also general exemptions that take account of the specific features of the notification systems:

For example, in the case of direct surveys of companies (Intrastat system), enterprises whose intra-Community trade in goods per direction (arrivals/dispatches) during the previous or current year does not exceed € 200 000 (around DM 400 000), are exempted from making a return.

.For customs survey purposes, consignments up to a value of € 800 (around DM 1 600) need not be declared, provided the total weight of the consignment does not exceed 1 000 kg.

Preliminary external trade data are available some six weeks after the end of the month, and detailed results two to three weeks later.

Production forecasts (gross indigenous production)

Quantitative forecasts (gross indigenous production, GIP) for pigs are derived from the stock groups shown in the livestock census results for the following forecasting intervals:

This quantitative forecast is converted to a quarterly result by distributing the GIP equally across the months. The quarter-based forecasting periods begin two months after the survey in question, i.e. two months of the first forecast period are dispensed with. The production forecast for the last two months must incorporate information on short-term trends in gilt stocks, the profitability of piglet production and pig fattening, the number of slaughtering days and other criteria. In practice, the stock groups in question are correlated with the staggered GIPs. These are then used to derive the estimated parameters for the following intervals. A distinction must be made here between GIPs excluding external trade in piglets (production from older stock groups) and GIPs including external trade in piglets (production derived from piglet and sow stocks). The estimate of external trade in piglets is restricted to the first quarter of the forecasting period and is derived by continuing trends to date.

The GIP forecast for cattle and calves is likewise based on the continued correlations between individual stock groups and the corresponding staggered GIPs in the two six-month periods following the livestock census. In addition, increases in calf numbers and rearing quotas for large cattle are determined for each six-month period. The most recent results are based on continued estimates of the relevant stocks of individual categories (stocks of calves and dairy cows, total cattle) in the following period and the resultant GIP. Individual parameters such as increases in calf numbers, rearing quotas, etc., are incorporated into the annual estimates following the livestock censuses. For calves, the estimate of the rearing quota takes due account of basic agricultural and economic conditions.

The production estimate of cows is based on changes in heifer stocks and the replenishment rate. With a fixed milk quota, dairy cow stocks decrease in proportion to the estimated increase in output, whilst suckler cow stocks increase further still as a result of premiums. Unlike heifers, cows play only a limited role in external trade. Changes in parameters are more marked for heifers, this being attributable to fluctuations in the external trade of breeding heifers as well as discontinuous trends in the replenishment of dairy cow stocks. The forecast takes account of anticipated exports, and is based on changes in the stocks of breeding heifers and heifers for slaughter.

For steers and bulls, parameters have undergone fairly major fluctuations as a result of unification and the BSE crisis. For forecasting purposes, account is taken during the first six-month period of initial stocks of male animals aged over one year, as well as of the previous year's initial stocks of male animals aged between 6 months and 1 year. The GIP for the second six-month period is correlated with the same stock group as of the last survey date. Furthermore, the forecast values are verified using other parameters, such as the rearing of steers and bulls, and additional factors. The rearing of steers, accounting for over 2% of the total steer and bull production, plays a fairly minor role in Germany.

These results, as with pigs, are presented to a joint meeting of the Committee of Experts for the Evaluation of Livestock Census Findings, where they are discussed, modified as necessary, then published in specialist journals.

The advance estimate of GIP for sheep and goats is based on the estimated stocks of ewes and lambs or goats (estimate) on the relevant enumeration days. In order to put estimates on a firmer footing, a long-term time series is used to build up GIP quotients (per 1 000 head) for each initial population on each survey day (per 1 000 head). The resultant quotients are kept virtually constant in the estimates and compared with the results of the statistics on slaughterings.

All advance estimates of GIP are affected by the under-recording of trade in live animals in the intra-Community trade sector. Since 1993, therefore, Germany has systematically supplemented national data on imports and exports with data from the other Member States (mirror statistics) in order to calculate GIP. Comparison with the other Member States is very expensive and is not done until the end of the calendar year. The basic trend is towards a decrease in the number of adjustments made.

Poultry statistics

The Agricultural Statistics Act calls for monthly surveys of birds slaughtered in poultry processing abattoirs. Data are collected on slaughterings of broilers, boiling hens, ducks, geese, turkeys and guinea fowl. A response obligation applies to the owners of poultry abattoirs with a slaughter capacity of at least 2 000 animals per month.